Seth Jacobs – Maine Mortgage Banker / Broker

The head of the National Transitional Council military arm announced on Al Jazeera Arabic that Gadhafi is dead. The report hasn’t been confirmed.

Mortgage bonds are weaker at the open pushing rates higher as news out of Europe indicates the euro zone’s bailout facility will be able to buy EU bonds on the secondary market. The US debt market was weaker heading into the jobs data and didn’t move move following it.

Stock futures are higher adding addition pressure to mortgage bonds. The flight to quality buying of US debt instruments continues to fluxuate as hopes of a European debt solution increase. AS WE CONTINUE TO STATE….the trouble in Europe is far from over and we have been on this roller coaster for some time so expected more volatility to come!!!

Weekly jobless claims @ 403k, expected @ 400k, relatively in line with expectations

Volatility dominated the capital markets today as Stock and Bonds flip flopped between negative and positive several times each with Stocks emerging as the winner when the trading day ended.

Fed Chairman Bernanke spoke on Capitol Hill today on the economy and said that the Fed would take necessary steps to grow the economy. The Dow was down 250 points at one point, then traded back to unchanged, then down 200 before closing up 150 points. Mortgage Bonds traded the opposite way of Stocks during the session but at one point Stocks and Bonds were both trading lower. But around 2:30 – 3:00pm ET, a report that EU finance ministers are looking at ways of coordinating to recapitalize European financial institutions pushed Stocks well into positive territory near the close.

Investors sold Bonds today and took some profits after the big surge in prices this week. Markets don’t go straight up or straight down so the move lower today wasn’t a big surprise and came without any gloom and doom headlines.

The 3.5% coupon fell 88bp to end at 102.78. Stock markets fluctuated between positive and negative several times during the session and ended with moderate gains but the Dow had its worst week since October 2008 down 6.4%…closing at 10,771.48 up 37.65. The S&P 500 fell 6.5% this week but managed to gain 6.87 to 1,136.43 while the Nasdaq was up 27.56 to 2,483.23 but down 5.3% for the week. The big news today was the record one day move for Gold as it had lost $100 to $1,641/oz before finishing at $1,653/oz down $88. Oil settled at $79.85/barrel down 66 cents falling 9.2% for the week. Next week economic data is plentiful and will give investors a broad look at the economy.

How do you stimulate the economy without spending any money? You do the twist and shuffle. The Federal Reserve announced Wednesday that it would engage in a new policy known as “Operation Twist,” consisting of selling shorter-term Treasuries and using the proceeds to buy longer-term government bonds. The Mortgage Bond markets soared today after the surprise announcement from the Fed saying that it will be purchasing agency Mortgage Backed Securities from the principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency Mortgage Backed Securities in agency Mortgage Backed Securities. The move took players by surprise in a big way. The 3.5% coupon jumped 134bp to end at an all-time high of 103.00 The next few trading days will determine if we switch over to the 3% coupon, which finished at 99.81 up 134bp today.Stocks plunged after the Fed statement read that there are significant downside risks to the economy. The Dow lost 283.82, the Nasdaq fell 52.05 to 2,538.19 while the S&P 500 Index dropped 35.33. Oil in after hours trading was last seen at $84.83/barrel down $2.09. Weekly claims will be released tomorrow.

News out of Europe put a dent in the Bond rally and cut into Stock losses, though Bonds did have a positive day. The late day sentiment could carry over into tomorrow’s trading as the news comes out of Europe.

MARKET WRAP: The Bond markets rallied today after last week’s slide but the gains were cut after news from Europe said the IMF, EC and the ECB (Troika) may be close to a deal to bailout Greece. But Mortgage Bonds did end the day to the upside as the 3.5% coupon closed at 101.59 up 50bp, although below resistance. The Dow lost 108.08 to 11,401.01 but it was down 260 points during the session. The S&P 500 fell 11.92 to 1,204.09 while the Nasdaq dropped 9.48 to 2,612.83. There were no economic reports today. Oil settled at $85.70/barrel down $2.26. Tomorrow, Housing Starts and Building Permits will be released. The Fed will begin its 2-day meeting tomorrow.

MARKET WRAP: Stock markets plunged today and pushed Bond prices considerably higher in early trading. But as the session unfolded Mortgage Bonds hit fresh session highs, then they reversed course and headed lower. The 3.5% coupon rose 19bp to 101.66, just above where it closed yesterday. Today’s higher than expected Initial Claims and a plunge in the Philly Fed gave a big boost to the Bond markets but the rally soon fizzled out. Stocks plunged today on the aforementioned news. That coupled with Euro bank woes was the recipe for the sell-off. The Dow lost 419.63 to 10,990.58, the S&P 500 dropped 53.24 to 1,140.65 while the Nasdaq plunged 131.05 to settle at 2,380.43. Oil finished the turbulent session at $82.38/barrel down $5.20 as global recession fears could crimp demand. There are no economic reports tomorrow.

It’s a great time to own Gold : Stock markets were unchanged today giving the Bond markets a reason to run higher. The 3.5% coupon jumped 25bp to end at 101.56, but ended below resistance levels set last October. Tech shares were sold aggressively today and pushed money into Bonds and utility related stocks. The Dow saw a meager gain of 4.28 to end at 11,410.21, the S&P saw a paltry gain of 1.13 to 1,193.89 while the Nasdaq dropped 11.97 to end at 2,511.48. Oil saw a gain of 93 cents to $87.58/barrel on lower inventories while Gold closed at a record $1,791.20 up $8.80. Tomorrow’s data includes Initial Claims, CPI, Philly Fed Index and Existing Home Sales.

WOW. What a roller coaster on Wall street. Markets experienced extreme volatility once again today especially after the Fed announced its statement at 2:15pm ET. The Fed did not say that it would add any additional stimulus to the economy but Stocks bounced back after the horrific sell-off in recent days. Mortgage Bonds also rose today – our new focus is the 3.5% coupon rising 131bp to end at 101.22. The Monthly Bond Rollover will occur after the close of trading and will be reflected tomorrow. The Dow surged 429.92 to 11,239.77, the S&P 500 jumped 53.07 at 1,172.53 while the Nasdaq soared 124.83 to 2,482.52. Oil in after hours trading was $82.14/barrel down $2. There is no economic data tomorrow. The Treasury will sell $24B 10-yr notes tomorrow.

MARKET WRAP: WOW!

What a day in the markets today as Stocks plunged on fears of another recession due to weak economic data and as sellers said, “Get Me Out!” The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 512.76 to end the session at 11383.68 down 10.5% from just July 21 and sending the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and the Dow into negative territory for the year. The S&P fell 60.27 to 1200.07 while the Nasdaq dropped 136.68 to 2,556.39. The 4% coupon jumped 81bp to end at 103.50. We will be switching our focus to the 3.5% in the next few business days. Oil was last seen in after hours trading down $5.48 to $86.45/barrel. Tomorrow’s Jobs Report sees 84K new jobs created in July and will be reported at 8:30am ET.